Executive Summary
Boston's unique sports culture creates extraordinary revenue volatility for hospitality businesses. This study analyzes 127 restaurants, bars, and retail establishments across Greater Boston over three playoff seasons (2022-2024) to quantify the revenue impact of Celtics and Bruins postseason runs.
Our findings reveal that playoff revenue represents 15-22% of annual income for businesses within 2 miles of TD Garden, yet this revenue concentration creates significant downside risk when teams miss the playoffs or experience early exits.
Methodology
Data collection occurred across three distinct playoff seasons spanning 2022-2024. We partnered with point-of-sale (POS) system providers to access anonymized transaction data from participating establishments.
Sample Selection Criteria
Businesses were selected based on proximity to TD Garden (≤2 miles), revenue dependence on game-day traffic (≥25%), and willingness to share anonymized sales data. Our sample includes:
- 78 full-service restaurants (seats: 80-250)
- 32 bars and taverns (capacity: 50-180)
- 17 retail establishments (sports apparel, memorabilia)
Data Analysis Framework
We compared revenue during playoff games against baseline revenue from equivalent non-game days (same day of week, time of year). Statistical significance was tested using paired t-tests with Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons.
Key Findings
1. Revenue Concentration by Game Type
| Game Type | Avg Revenue | Capacity | vs. Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celtics Home (Playoff) | $15,200 | 98% | +187% |
| Bruins Home (Playoff) | $13,400 | 96% | +165% |
| Away Game Viewing | $8,100 | 82% | +84% |
| Non-Game Baseline | $4,400 | 68% | — |
2. Seasonal Revenue Distribution
For businesses within 1 mile of TD Garden, playoff season revenue accounts for 18.3% of annual income despite representing only 6-8 weeks of the calendar year. This creates severe revenue concentration risk.
When teams advance to Conference Finals or beyond, businesses experience outsized gains (+220-280% vs. baseline). However, first-round exits or playoff misses result in catastrophic revenue shortfalls, with no corresponding downside protection available through traditional insurance products.
3. Staffing and Inventory Challenges
Businesses must commit to staffing and inventory decisions 2-4 weeks before playoff status is confirmed. Our survey data shows:
- 82% hire additional staff in anticipation of playoffs
- 74% increase inventory orders by 40-60%
- 63% face unrecoverable costs when teams miss playoffs
Implications for Risk Management
The revenue patterns documented in this study create a clear use case for financial hedging strategies. Traditional business interruption insurance does not cover playoff misses, leaving businesses exposed to systematic revenue risk.
Our analysis suggests that hedging costs of 15-20% of expected playoff revenue can provide meaningful downside protection while preserving upside potential when teams advance deep into the postseason.
Citation: Causeway Capital Research (2024). Boston Sports Revenue Impact Study: Quantifying Playoff Season Revenue Concentration in Greater Boston Hospitality Businesses, 2022-2024. Retrieved from https://causewaycapital.com/research