Advanced hedge strategies for Boston sports businesses. Protect revenue exposure using live playoff odds and institutional-grade execution.
Your revenue is directly tied to playoff success. Our proprietary market intelligence provides real-time assessment of each team's playoff probability—and your revenue exposure.
Research-backed strategies grounded in Boston sports market analysis and live playoff probability data.
Real hedging strategies protecting real Boston businesses during playoff seasons.
150-seat restaurant near TD Garden hedged against Celtics playoff miss with strategic probability-based hedge positions.
"The $11.7K was insurance I was happy to lose. We generated $65K from playoff traffic and the hedge gave us certainty to staff properly."
Hedged against shortened playoff run. Contracts paid out when Bruins eliminated in Round 1.
Hedge recovered 92% of lost playoff revenue, transforming a $42K loss into a manageable $3.5K impact.
Three locations hedged $180K combined playoff exposure with correlation-adjusted strategy.
Correlation-adjusted hedging across multiple teams and locations reduced hedge cost by 20% vs. individual contracts.
Data-driven insights from comprehensive market analysis
Three-year longitudinal analysis of playoff season revenue patterns across Boston-area hospitality businesses. Our research quantifies the dramatic revenue concentration during championship runs and identifies optimal hedging windows.
Statistical validation of playoff probability markets comparing predicted vs. actual outcomes across NBA and NHL postseason qualification.
Correlation-adjusted hedging methodology for multi-location and multi-sport revenue exposure, reducing aggregate costs through portfolio optimization.
All studies undergo rigorous peer review and statistical validation. Data sources include point-of-sale systems, proprietary probability market data, and third-party verification.
We utilize CFTC-regulated probability markets to create strategic hedge positions tied to playoff outcomes. When teams have uncertain playoff prospects, we establish protective positions that pay out if teams miss the postseason—offsetting the revenue you would have lost from missing playoff games.
The optimal time is when playoff probabilities are between 15-40%. This provides favorable pricing while still meaningful protection. Currently, the Bruins (22%) and Red Sox (15%) are in this sweet spot. We monitor markets daily and alert you to optimal entry points.
Hedge costs typically range from 15-25% of your total risk exposure. For example, if you have $18,400 in potential playoff revenue exposure, a hedge would cost approximately $3,200-$4,600. This achieves a 4-6x protection ratio, meaning every $1 spent protects $4-6 in revenue.
You lose the hedge cost, but this is the ideal outcome. You're generating the playoff revenue you expected, and the hedge cost is simply the insurance premium you paid for protection. Think of it like fire insurance on your bar—you hope to never need it, but you're protected if disaster strikes.
For liquid markets (Celtics, Patriots), execution is near-instant with minimal slippage. For thinner markets (Bruins, Red Sox), we recommend splitting orders into tranches over 24-48 hours to minimize market impact. We handle all execution and provide real-time updates.
Yes. Our hedge strategies utilize CFTC-regulated (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) probability markets operating as Designated Contract Markets. This is not sports betting—it's a regulated financial instrument for hedging business risk, similar to commodities or futures markets.